NFL Conference Championship Central
-Pittsburgh, PA
We are a mere 15 hours from the kickoff of the NFL Championship doubleheader and of course npoc has your award winning coverage right here. I have given you my insight, stats, matchups, rankings and my predictions.
In tonights post I will further examine what the public is looking at this week and traditionally how the public does in conference championship games.
Lets start off in the NFC
The following are what the Las Vegas point spreads were late Sunday evening when the spreads were set and betting was opened up
Eagles vs Falcons
Line: Eagles -4
Total: Over/Under 41.5
Since then, the public has jumped allll over the Eagles and the weather forecast has driven that total down a considerable amount
Eagles vs Falcons
Line: Eagles -5.5
Total: Over/Under 37
For a spread 1.5 points is a heck of a jump although there really is not THAT much of a difference between 4 and 5.5, this is not a jump over over or under a fieldgoal or anything like so I still advise taking the Eagles
The shots of snow on the television continue to drive the total down and down and I advise slamming this one on the OVER right before game time. Hopefully we can get it down to 5 touchdowns.
My reasoning is that in the snow, the offense knows where it is going and the defense does not, advantage offense.
Lets see what the public thinks
70% of the public is taking the EAGLES -5.5 and the public also backs the under with 54%
The underdog usually sees alot of moneyline betting however only 43% of people betting on the moneyline side with the underdog Atlanta Falcons
I actually back the public for once and think they have this pick down
And lets all pray we do not have to see eagles coach Andy Reid in another Hawaiian shirt for the pro bowl

AFC Championship Betting Trends
Stillers vs Patriots
Opening Lines
Patriots -3
Over/Under 37
Current Lines
Patriots -3
Over/Under 34.5
The line of a fieldgoal is dreaded by all oddsmakers and they fear middling (thats another lesson for another day) so this line is not budging and is a firm -3
The Under continues to drop with the weather forecast but people are overlooking that the snow will be completely cleared out because the Heyinz Filled is heated and the Rooneys have often criticized messed fields. There will not be a drop of snow on there but this is still a matchup of two top defenses. The line is less than 5 touchdowns, right where it was last week when it went over. This Patriots defense is better but they are also a better offense.
Lets see what the public thinks
69% of the public, nearly identical to those that are on with the EAGLES, are siding with the Patriots and -3. Of people that are betting straightup 66% are going with the Patriots to win outright, a lesser payout for a better guarantee.
56% of the public is siding with the under on this one, just about the same that are the under with the EAGLES

Well just remember the public is poor and the bookies and casinos are rich, so conventional wisdom would say "go where the money aint" and take the Stillers and Falcons + the points and the overs in both games

npocs picks
Stillers +3 (nfl playoff game of the decade)
Stillers/Patriots Over 33.5 (wait for this one to drop even further overnight)
Eagles -5.5 (get this now before it goes to 6.5)
Eagles/Falcons Over 36.5 (this one will drop the fastest, let it go all the way til kickoff)

The main turning points over the week:
-Snow in the forecast both games
-TO definitly out of the Eagles game
-Ben ditches the gloves
-Freezing temperatures in the forecast
-Richard Seymour will not start for the Patriots but could get playing time
-No word on Bens thumb, should be 100% though

Stay tuned for more updates on the hour everyhour

-n-