OSCARS
npocs 0fficial 2005 preview
-Los Angelas, Ca
The 77th Annual Academy Awards
Sunday, February 27, 2005, 8:00 p.m. EST/5:00 p.m. PST
I have downloaded and seen most of the movies nominated so I have a fair solid assesment of the field but I also realize it has of the product on the screen, a quarter of lifetime achievments and a quarter race related when it comes to decisions. Here are my predictions for the major awards.

Best Picture
The Aviator 5/8 (******** to pay out *****)
Ray 5/9
Million Dollar Baby 7/5
Sideways 9/1
Finding Neverland 40/1

The Aviator is the strongest movie of the year and was just built for a Best Picture award, all the ingredients are there. Ray is terrible, Jaime Foxx blows, Ray Charles was a nobody to begin with and nobody gave a flaming piano about him until he died. The movie is overated and the only chance it has is if the Oscar is looking to be politically correct. Finding Neverland is my number 2 pick to win it all and those 40/1 odds are incredible, so a small play on that is in line for a HUGE payout. Sideways is a comedy and comedys dont win. Million Dollar Baby is a sports movie and sports movies dont win.

Best Director
Martin Scorsese (The Aviator) 5/7 (******* to pay out *****)
Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby) 1/1
Taylor Hackford (Ray) 25/1
Alexander Payne (Sideways) 30/1
Mike Leigh (Vera Drake) 60/1

Scorsese is a heavy favorite and he should be because the Academy will award it to me based on a life-time achievment. The best director, Michael Mann, was not even nominated. Ray sucked so Taylor Hackford has no chance and nobody knows what Vera Drake is. Payne would warrant a small play due to the odds and excellent screne play in Sideways. Clint Eastwood just got too damn depressing at the end of Million Dollar baby to win this one.

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx 1/20
Leonardo DiCaprio 8/1 (* to pay out ********)
Clint Eastwood 22/1
Don Cheadle 30/1
Johnny Depp 40/1 (* to pay out 40*)

The odds on Jaime Foxx are just ridiculuos, he is a huge favorite only because he is black and Ray is the flavor of the week for some ungod be knowst reason. 20/1 basically means that 20 bucks pays out 1 dollar if he wins. DiCaprio deserves this and even Eastswood and Depp put on solid roles. Depp has great odds and deserves a medium pay for a gigantic payoff. Cheadle leads Hotel Rwanda but his character is just not strong enough.

Supporting Actor
Morgan Freeman 18/5 (5* to pay out 18*)
Thomas Haden Church 4/1
Clive Owen 7/1
Alan Alda 25/1 (1* to pay out 25*)
Jamie Foxx 30/1

Once again, Foxx sucks, he has no chance, hes just terrible. Thomas Haden Church was the favorite but when you see Morgan Freeman nominated he instantly gets all the attention. Alan Alda was his brilliant self in the Aviator, this is tough to call and it looks like Im going to spread out my plays on this one.

Best Actress
Hilary Swank 1/6
Annette Bening 7/2 (6* to pay out 21*)
Imelda Staunton 15/1 (2* to pay out 45*)
Kate Winslet 25/1
Catalina Sandino 50/1

Swank's powerful performance vaults her up as a heavy favorite especially with her past success at the Oscars. The only play here with value is Annette Bening to pull off the upset. Kate Winslet was awful and the movie was even worse. I like a play on Imelda too as a late wild card that could have her named mentioned.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett 1/3
Virginia Madsen 11/4
Natalie Portman 6/1
Laura Linney 25/1 (2* to pay out 50*)
Sophie Okonedo 25/1

Cate Blanchett had a terrible accent and played a very bad role in the aviator, she is only the odds on favorite because of the name. Laura Linney is actually my favorite here even with the huge underdog odds, I like that play alot


-n